Elections Blog

http://rasmussenreports.com/Political%20Tracking/Dailies/MormanMittRomney.htm Pollsters at “Rasmussen Reports” have just released the latest in the string of many “would you ever vote for a Mormon?” polls. This one puts the figure at 43% and the report plays up the apparent story with the headline “Election 2008: 43% Would Never Vote for Mormon Candidate”.

Well, that number is just a tad higher than the 37% figure that was reported by the LA Times/Bloomberg poll a few months back. I blogged about that one here. In a nutshell, these figures in NO WAY translate into the picture (AKA “implied headline”) that some people are trying to paint . . . that “43% Would Never Vote for Romney”.

Why? Well, first off, this poll was of all likely voters (R’s, D’s, and I’s). . . obviously liberals and those aware of and uncomfortable with the fact that nearly all Mormon’s are strong social conservatives would never vote for one.

Also, some great signs for Romney are hidden in this poll:

Among the 41% with no opinion of Romney, just 27% say they would consider voting for a Mormon.

That shows that Romney has lots of room for improved name recognition. But even more to the point of this whole Mormon issue is that only about one quarter of the likely voters surveyed who don’t know Romney would vote for a Mormon. That confirms the theory that people are just more uncomfortable with a “different” religion–espeicially when they cannot put a name/face with it.

How do I come to that? Well, since 38% of all respondants said they’d consider voting for a Mormon, if we subtract out the 41% who had no opinion of Romney (along with their 27% “consider voting for a Momron” figure)—that leaves us with 59% of folks who DO have an opinion of Romney (be it good or bad). My quick calculation of these figures shows that nearly 47% of people with ANY opinion of Romney would consider voting for a Mormon. Counting out those with unfavorable views of Romney (many/most of which will be liberals/Democrats who will not vote in the GOP primary) and the figure gets up to nearly 100%.

The article then helps confirm what I’ve been saying all along: That these polls about Mormonism are not directly translatable to Romney himself.

It is possible, of course, that these perceptions might change as Romney becomes better known and his faith is considered in the context of his campaign. Currently, just 19% of Likely Voters are able to identify Romney as the Mormon candidate from a list of six potential Presidential candidates.

This shows that Romney may have a pretty “open slate” to work with and I’m convinced he’ll shine through and dispel any qualms about his religious affiliation.

However, should this following part be worrisome?

Half (53%) of all Evangelical Christians say that they would not consider voting for a Mormon candidate.

Again, I just think that this unmasks a lack of information/education of Mormonism by Evangelicals in general, and how that relates to Romney in specific.

On the brighter side, at least the American populus is more intolerant of some other religions than Mormonism . . .
The response to a theoretical Mormon candidate is far less negative than the response to a Muslim candidate or an atheist. Sixty-one percent (61%) of Likely Voters say they would never consider voting for a Muslim Presidential candidate. Sixty percent (60%) say the same about an atheist.

Jeff

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http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDI4ZjI2MTg3ZGZkZWQ3N2Q5MmQ3MzQ0YjY2Mjg5NmQ At a 2008 panel, Kate O’Beirne asked for a show of hands from our 450 cruisers on the major GOP presidential candidates. Romney clearly did best with about 2/3 of the crowd supporting him. My impression was that Giuliani was second, and McCain and Gingrich tied in distant third. Fwiw…

If you’re a presidential candidate for 2008 and your name is Mitt Romney, your future is looking great!

Copied from: The Corner on National Review Online
Hat tip to: Evangelicals for Mitt

Kevin Davis Jr.

Technorati Tags: Mitt Romney, 2008, Presidential Election, Election 2008.

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http://www.gopbloggers.org/octoberpollresults.php Mitt Romney won the 2008 GOP Primary Straw Poll for October 2006 in terms of net votes!

15775 ballots cast Net Votes 1st Choice + Votes - Votes
Romney______7996_(+50.7%)
Giuliani____7102_(+45%)
Gingrich____6494_(+41.2%)
Allen_______3892_(+24.7%)
Tancredo_____756_(+4.8%)
Brownback___-620_(-3.9%)
Huckabee____-746_(-4.7%)
Frist______-4682_(-29.7%)
McCain_____-6709_(-42.5%)
Pataki_____-6822_(-43.2%)
Hagel______-8125_(-51.5%)

But wait theres more! In a 3-way race between John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, and Mitt Romney among the Arizona voters, Mitt Romney won!

3-Way Race:
Romney____210_(47.4%)
Giuliani__190_(42.9%)
McCain_____38_(8.6%)
____________5_(1.1%)

Kevin Davis Jr.

Technorati Tags: Mitt Romney, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, 2008, Presidential Election.

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Marist College Institute for Public Opinion - WNBC

Sept. 2006
Feb. 2006

RudyCondiMcCainGingrichRomneyFristAllenPatakiBrownbackTancredoHagelOtherUndecided

23%20%15% 7% 4% 4% 2% 2% 1% 1% – na 21%

22%22%22% 5% 4% 2% 2% 2% – 1% 1%an 17%

The results of a recent Marist poll seem to reflect [...]

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Here is a look at the Presidential race for 2008. But please consider in politics two years is an eternity.

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Even though the New York Times is telling you that the Democrats will win, this from Drudge paints a different picture. Historically, this item is correct s we have seen in the past 3 elections. The Democrats push the polls and then cry theft when the votes don’t match the polls!
Democratic pollsters are pushing …

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http://nationaljournal.com/racerankings/wh08/ The new rankings are up today (they’re generally updated every month or so).

Still McCain, Romney, Giuliani, and Huckabee as the top 4. They dropped Allen off the list completely and have no one in the #5 spot. Interesting. They also keep Giuliani there despite his lack of putting teams together–anywhere . . . maybe Rudy’s running for VP or maybe he pulls a Wesley Clark and comes into the game very late if there’s an opening?

I’m fine with keeping Romney out of the top spot . . . who wants to be the frontrunner this early? Romney’s had a much better last few months than McCain, yet McCain still tops the list–was he that far ahead? (Also, if you hadn’t noticed, National Journal and Hotline: On Call–affiliated sites–are very kind to McCain and always seem to spin things to where he comes off looking good).

In their intro they say . . .

We’re about six weeks away from the first official presidential announcement. All of the top-tier candidates will want to open up federal accounts for official fundraising as quickly as possible, particularly the candidates that didn’t run last time like Mitt Romney, Mark Warner and Evan Bayh. What’s not clear is when John McCain, Hillary Rodham Clinton and John Edwards announce. They have the standing to wait a bit longer than others, but at the same time, they’d like to make sure their new challengers don’t get too much oxygen. This should be fascinating to watch.

So does Romney announce in Nov (post elections) or in Jan (after finishing in Mass)? I think earlier is better for him to allow time for people to get sick of “The Mormon Question”.

I saw Newt on FOX News say that he wouldn’t announce “yes” or “no” until SEPT. 2007. That seems late for someone who’s never run for POTUS . . . maybe he and Rudy are milking the attention and exposure? I really can’t blame them if they are.

Of Romney, NJ says . . .

In New Hampshire, Romney wants to become the first presidential candidate for whom the endorsement of conservatives in that state signals to conservatives in other states that he’s in the middle of the Reagan coalition and electable at the same time. It’s hard to do. He’s not exactly part of the establishment, although he seems to be consciously assuming the habits and policy positions of the conservative intellectual elite. His pragmatic streak and workmanlike style add a touch of independence. His PAC is ingeniously helping to run Jim Nussle’s field operation in Iowa. New Hampshire Republicans believe he has the Gregg-Rath-Maiola axis all but wrapped up. However, Mormon skepticism, whether induced by whisper campaigns or in public, has begun to show up in South Carolina

Jeff

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She is, to almost all Republicans, the “800-pound gorilla,” in the 2008 election. (This is not a reference to her any of her physical characteristics.) However, Americans for Dr. Rice has been very careful not to follow Dick Morris’ lead and make the next presidential contest a strictly “Condi vs. Hillary” affair. The possibility of [...]

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Last month at the Iowa State Fair, there was a Presidential straw poll. In true Iowa fashion, the “Cast Your Kernel” poll had a corn theme. Channel 13 WHO-TV sponsored the poll . they wrote the names of 10 potential Democrats and 10 potential Republican presidential candidates on hard kernels of corn. People could take [...]

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Announcing “My Man Mitt” where those wanting can become official “MittHeads”

Also, the GOP Bloggers Poll is ongoing . . . Mitt is doing his best ever in one of these and is almost leading in the “net votes” area . . . just behind Newt. There are over 8000 votes now and they closed the last of these GOP Bloggers polls at around 10000 votes . . . lets push Romney over the top!

Over at the Krusty Konservative (Iowa’s most interactive GOP political blog) there is an interesting thread about Krusty’s current assessment and future forecast of the financial capabilities of the current GOP field.

The following is how I see the Presidential field shaking out. To the right is a comparable Democrat for the 2004 primary you can use as a reference.

Major Leaguers
Governor Mitt Romney (John Kerry - $184 Million raised)
Senator John McCain (Howard Dean - $50 Million raised)
I think it’s clear that both Romney and McCain will be able to fund extensive kampaigns. If Rudy Giuliani does run he might be able to get to the big leagues, but Romney and McCain have a huge lead on him.

AAA
Governor George Pataki (John Edwards - $21 Million raised)
Senator Bill Frist (Wesley Clark - $20 Million raised)
Senator George Allen (Richard Gephardt - $18 Million raised)
I’m not convinced that George Allen runs, but if he does I think he can raise an adequate amount of campaign kash.

AA
Governor Mike Huckabee (Dennis Kucinich - $11 Million raised)
Senator Sam Brownback (Joe Lieberman - $11 Million raised)

Jeff

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http://www.gopbloggers.org/mt/archives/004174.html The new GOP Bloggers 2008 POTUS poll is up . . . This time with a few twists.

I’ve added this to my “Poll Roll” near the top of my right side-bar at Iowans for Romney. Romney’s doing well in most of them . . . but recently fell behind Wes Clark at HorseRace2008.

Jeff

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http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/13078 An interesting poll performed by Angus Reid recently roughly gauged the “like-ability” and “name recognition” of various prominent US politicians. I really like it when they publish the actual question(s) asked:

I’d like to get your feelings toward some of our political leaders and other people who have been in the news. I’ll read the name of a person and I’d like you to rate that person using something called the feeling thermometer. You can choose any number between 0 and 100. The higher the number, the warmer or more favourable you feel toward that person, the lower the number, the colder or less favourable. If we come to a person who you haven’t heard enough about to form an opinion, you don’t need to rate the person. Just tell me and we’ll move on to the next one.

Who are these numbers good and bad for?

Good:

Rudy Giuliani:
64.1 Likability Factor (LF) and only unknown to (UT) 12% . . . not much room to be brought down by those that just don’t know him. However, most pundits still think that he would face a rough road getting the GOP nomination . . . and I’m still not convinced he’s running for POTUS.

Barak Obama:
High LF at 54.9 AND high UT at 54%. Plenty of room for growth there. (This guy worries me . . . though he’s probably running for VP or waiting until 2012 . . . however, if I had to have a Democrat President, he’d be near the top of my list)

Mark Warner:
Solid LF at 47.7 and VERY high UT at 73%. He’s known mostly to Virginians (which is a mostly Red State) and politically in-tune Democrats.

Mitt Romney:
Very similar numbers to Warner. Romney’s LF is solid at 46.8 and he has a huge UT at 69%. However, he is best known in the ultra-liberal Mass and northeast . . . to not be disliked more is actaully a great sign for Romney. And, that over 2/3 of folks haven’t even heard of him bodes well (since nearly invariably, everyone who meets him is impressed). Also, I think that any Mormon/Utah factor getting up his LF couldn’t weigh too heavily since the percentage of Americans that are LDS is just under 2%.)

So-So:

John McCain:
LF good at 57.5 . . . but not gonna catch Rudy with his lead and similar 15% UT. Faces similar problems as Rudy in the GOP primary getting “the base” vote.

Bill Frist:
LF of 45.5 and UT of 53%. Room for growth . . . but hasn’t capitalized on his large stage as Sen Majority Leader as much as a POTUS hopeful should.

Bad:

Hillary Rodham Clinton:
LF pretty solid at 46.1 . . . but NO ROOM FOR GROWTH . . . she is universally known with a UT of only 1%

George Allen:
LF of 44.8 isn’t horrible (though it is the lowest of any Republican listed). He has a very high UT of 72%, but that doesn’t bode well for him since the introduction he will get from the media is his controversial record on racism/bullying. Also, he’s known mostly to his Virginian constituents (remember . . . it’s mostly a Red State) and the politically in-tune Republicans. He should be having a much higher LF than 44.8.

John Kerry:
Less impressive LF at 43.5 and little room for growth at 6% UT

Extra tidbits:

Congressional Democratic leadership is HUGELY unpopular/unliked (Reid and Pelosi have the LOWEST LF at 37.9 and 34.7). Actually, the entire lower end of the list is filled with Democratic Senators. Then why is it that all we hear from the media is how much everyone hates Bush? . . . hmmm . . .

Sad fact for the day . . . 2/3′rds of American’s surveyed don’t know who the Senate Minority Leader is? And 1% of those surveyed don’t know who Bush is . . . do they live in a hole?

Jeff

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http://iowansforromney.blogspot.com/ OK, I’m not convinced that these online polls mean much . . . but I do think that the more votes Gov. Romney gets, the more people who encounter such polls will be interested in finding out about Romney if they are currently uninformed. It’s also nice to show that Romney has strong support from the online community.

Also, since we can vote in many of the online polls daily, I’ve added
a new feature to my Iowans for Romney blogsite. On the right sidebar, under the
small picture of Mitt’s Turnaround book, is a new heading titled:

“VOTE FOR MITT: Online Polls!”

I’ll try to keep it updated. Consider going there to vote for Mitt as part of your daily routine . . . that way we’ll stay ahead in some of these polls and not need to play catch-up. Please inform me if you know of other online polls so I can get them on the “Poll-roll.”

One that we’re just a few votes away from winning (and should be closing tomorrow evening is the one at Strawpoll’08 (the first column)

Jeff

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http://giulianiblog.blogspot.com/2006/08/exclusive-polls-suggest-imminent_25.html I just cam accrosed a most unusual source of praise and cause for encouragment for Romney fans–a Rudy Giuliani Blogsite Entry:

And if I’m the campaign pollster for Mitt Romney, I’m thinking that those voters are much more easily peeled off from John McCain.

I e-mailed David Johnson of Strategic Vision to ask if I was heading in the right direction. Here was his response:

Every piece of polling evidence that we have from our statewide polls show that Rudy Giuliani and not John McCain is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination in 2008 regardless of who else is in the race. In only one state does McCain outpoll Giuliani — Michigan — and that can be attributed to the residual effect of McCain’s victory in the state in 2000. However, in that state, Romney is on the rise and he is taking voters away from McCain not Giuliani. At this time, it appears that Romney is emerging as the candidate to break out of the pack and take on Giuliani and McCain. (emphasis added)

So, in scenarios where both Rice and Romney grab a higher share of the vote, they take more from McCain. As Romney rises, McCain falls and Rudy stays steady, setting up a Giuliani vs. Romney battle for Iowa and New Hampshire.

So, in scenarios where both Rice and Romney grab a higher share of the vote, they take more from McCain. As Romney rises, McCain falls and Rudy stays steady, setting up a Giuliani vs. Romney battle for Iowa and New Hampshire.

After some more analysis RudyBlogger finishes:

All this said — Don’t get cocky. I don’t think John McCain will be around to bother us in February ‘08, but that doesn’t mean we won’t face an even more formidable challenger. Post Macaca, that looks like it will be Mitt Romney. (Emphasis added)

It’s pretty well documented that McCain people see Romney as the biggest threat . . . now the Rudy fans seem to be coming to a similar conclusion. Prepare yourselves for attacks on Romney from every side possible!

Jeff

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http://iowansforromney.blogspot.com/2006/05/secret-weapon-napoleon-dynamite.html Obviously, Napoleon Dynamite is excited to “Vote for Mitt” (Pedro is probably on the shortlist for V.P.). But, for those interested in voting for Mitt in online polls, here’s a list of some active ones:

Instapundit (Romney trailing Giulianin and Gingrich)
The Pink Flamingo (Part of the GOP Bloggers Polling system)
Right Voices (Romney leading here)
Straw Poll 2008 (with an overall running poll, a daily poll, and a junk poll–unlimited amount of votes–Tancredo leading in all)
The Next Prez (scroll down to the poll with Red lettering)
The Krusty Konservative (Romney had been leading, but last week Pataki started getting huge numbers of votes each weekday morning . . . not sure what’s going on there)
The Caucus Cooler (don’t forget to not vote for Romney at this one since that would mean you think he will be the first to drop out after the Iowa Caucuses).

Many of these polls let you vote in them daily.

Leave a comment below if there are other polls out there.

Jeff

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In Opinion Editorials (”All the opinions that are fit to print” — a project of the Frontiers of Freedom center-right think tank), Lee Ellis, a retired journalist who previously worked for CBS and Gannett, filed his August 8, 2006, article, Candidates for President in 2008–Who’s Needed in an Era of Terrorism? (He must’ve worked in [...]

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