I've been away for the last week - hence the lack of catching up on the catching up. I returned this evening to find that, in the last seven days, nearly 100 Barack Obama items were bought from the Oval Office 2008 Shop - a huge volume compared to normal trading. In the Oval Office 2008 Button Poll, Obama now has more votes than the rest of the entire Democratic field put together. Meanwhile, I get a couple of emails asking me why I haven't mentioned Obama's comments last Sunday that he was considering entering the 2008 race. Because I was on a boat on England's Oxford Canal is the perhaps unexpected reason why - but a quick Google search reveals the news story that I had missed.
Senator Obama is clearly leaving the door open for a presidential run in 2008. He is now at least as committed to the process as Wes Clark, Bill Richardson, Tom Vilsack or Tom Daschle, all of whom are included in the Oval Office 2008 Rankings. I have resisted including in the rankings those who might attract significant support if they ran, but show no signs of wanting to run - Al Gore or Condoleezza Rice, for example. However, Obama now appears to be in a different category. It's time to put the Illinois Senator into the Rankings.
The question is: where. Obama has an interesting array of positive and negative attributes. He has undoubted star quality. His life story epitomises the American dream. He has natural charm and charisma, and appears as comfortable addressing huge audiences as talking to individual voters. He is, to date, scandal-free.
But I have concerns. I don't know what Barack Obama stands for - what an Obama presidency would be like, or seek to achieve. He lacks experience, having yet to finish his first term in the Senate and, by his own admission, yet to put his name to any significant piece of legislation. What are his ideas, and how does he envisage achieving them? What's his bold vision for the country and, equally importantly, how would he deal on a day-to-day level with the pressing issues of today? Is the appeal of an Obama candidacy just because of the speech he made at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, or is there more depth and breadth to it? Who are his supporters anyway - and which sections of the Democratic Party will be motivated to oppose him? For all his celebrity, how quickly could he really start to raise the funds and construct the organisation he would need to mount a serious presidential campaign?
All that said, I'm not sure I have a full idea of what Hillary Clinton wants to achieve as President, and we know exactly the scale of opposition to her, and yet she is top of the Democratic rankings. John Edwards, at number 2, also suffers from inexperience. Where is the depth and breadth of support for Evan Bayh or Joe Biden?
Could Barack Obama genuinely be someone who transcends the normal rules of politics just by the force of his character? Or is that just seeing him through rose-tinted spectacles because he has yet to be subject to the kind of scrutiny that a national campaign would surely bring on? Does our natural cynicism help us to see past the glitz and glamour and see Obama for what he really is, or hinder us from understanding the true meaning of Obama-mania?
My sense is that I could legitimately put Obama anywhere in the Democratic top 5 - including, without embarrassment, at number 1. I know as much as anyone that only an idiot would take my Button Poll seriously as an indicator of national political sentiment - but I also can't ignore the fact that Obama fans are willing to put their money where their mouth is, at least in my shop, on a far greater scale than supporters of any other Democratic candidate.
I'm going to make a decision in about 24 hours - early Sunday afternoon on the East coast. It won't be a final decision, of course - the rankings change as circumstances and my mood change. Nonetheless, the notion of Obama displacing Hillary as the favourite for the Democratic nomination is not out of the question. Let me know what you think.
Senator Obama is clearly leaving the door open for a presidential run in 2008. He is now at least as committed to the process as Wes Clark, Bill Richardson, Tom Vilsack or Tom Daschle, all of whom are included in the Oval Office 2008 Rankings. I have resisted including in the rankings those who might attract significant support if they ran, but show no signs of wanting to run - Al Gore or Condoleezza Rice, for example. However, Obama now appears to be in a different category. It's time to put the Illinois Senator into the Rankings.
The question is: where. Obama has an interesting array of positive and negative attributes. He has undoubted star quality. His life story epitomises the American dream. He has natural charm and charisma, and appears as comfortable addressing huge audiences as talking to individual voters. He is, to date, scandal-free.
But I have concerns. I don't know what Barack Obama stands for - what an Obama presidency would be like, or seek to achieve. He lacks experience, having yet to finish his first term in the Senate and, by his own admission, yet to put his name to any significant piece of legislation. What are his ideas, and how does he envisage achieving them? What's his bold vision for the country and, equally importantly, how would he deal on a day-to-day level with the pressing issues of today? Is the appeal of an Obama candidacy just because of the speech he made at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, or is there more depth and breadth to it? Who are his supporters anyway - and which sections of the Democratic Party will be motivated to oppose him? For all his celebrity, how quickly could he really start to raise the funds and construct the organisation he would need to mount a serious presidential campaign?
All that said, I'm not sure I have a full idea of what Hillary Clinton wants to achieve as President, and we know exactly the scale of opposition to her, and yet she is top of the Democratic rankings. John Edwards, at number 2, also suffers from inexperience. Where is the depth and breadth of support for Evan Bayh or Joe Biden?
Could Barack Obama genuinely be someone who transcends the normal rules of politics just by the force of his character? Or is that just seeing him through rose-tinted spectacles because he has yet to be subject to the kind of scrutiny that a national campaign would surely bring on? Does our natural cynicism help us to see past the glitz and glamour and see Obama for what he really is, or hinder us from understanding the true meaning of Obama-mania?
My sense is that I could legitimately put Obama anywhere in the Democratic top 5 - including, without embarrassment, at number 1. I know as much as anyone that only an idiot would take my Button Poll seriously as an indicator of national political sentiment - but I also can't ignore the fact that Obama fans are willing to put their money where their mouth is, at least in my shop, on a far greater scale than supporters of any other Democratic candidate.
I'm going to make a decision in about 24 hours - early Sunday afternoon on the East coast. It won't be a final decision, of course - the rankings change as circumstances and my mood change. Nonetheless, the notion of Obama displacing Hillary as the favourite for the Democratic nomination is not out of the question. Let me know what you think.